开首·：机构调研记

　　花旗-咱们对本周末好意思中营业谈判的预期-营业左券的博弈分析

　　中枢重点：

　　1．营业左券的博弈分析：从博弈论看，面前达周详面左券（打消好意思国营业逆差、取打消10%双边疆税外所相干税）并非最优。部分左券（如降关税至65%）中国或受益，但好意思国会拒却。好意思国本心左券需至少获面前受益的1690亿好意思元（通过更多关税或营业），若部分左券中中国出口降幅＜40%、好意思国出口降幅＜20%，70%关税的部分左券对两边更优。

　　2．关税决策与好意思国指标：特朗普政府关税数字非简略设定，65%关税提议有诡计依据。此前觉得左券不成行是假定两边营业降30%，现治疗为中国出口降幅是好意思国两倍，并探究两边豁免（如中国1000亿好意思元浪掷品出口仅征20%关税，好意思国400亿好意思元出口免税）。

　　好意思国在关税水平与营业量间量度，特朗普欲征满盈关税免低收入东说念主群联邦所得税（免75%需2360亿，免50%需512亿，可通过60%关税竣事），但按打消逆差念念路，这些指标难竣事。60%关税下好意思对中仍有578亿好意思元逆差（含关税），但优于面前2900亿好意思元。

　　3．谈判出路与商场影响：营业影响不解，两边恭候更领略数据，短期内难达成左券。两边对周末左券生机低，7⽉31⽇90天期限前难措置，商场或回4⽉9日水平施压带领东说念主。若面前145%关税下营业降80%，两边转65%关税体制最优，但除非营业战影响泄露或中国出口降80%，不然难阐述，预测中国出口数月内显影响。讨论颓势是假定好意思中出口亏损疏导（本色中国降幅是好意思国两倍，后续需治疗数据）

　　沃顿模子预测，145%关税下2025年中国出口降61.1%，此时中国支付关税就是对好意思出口价值，此为消逆差最优关税水平，降65%好意思仍有651亿好意思元逆差，好意思中均合稳当前体制，非常由更变。尽管近期有动向，好意思中营业左券仍山陬海澨。

　　两边觉得能低资本赢营业战，商场将教唆xx代价（特朗普曾因商场资本衰落）。7⽉8⽇90天脱期期左近，商场更弥留，仍处CGTSPOLL信号炫夸商场走低的窗口期（6⽉6日搁置，除非新信号），因对营业左券不切本色的生机，商场回升，波动和偏度下跌，是治疗对冲政策以在夏令从头测试和阻拦低点的契机。

　　完满翻译：

　　CitiPoint Asia： What We Expect From The US-China TradeNegotiations This Weekend花旗亚洲：咱们对本周末好意思中营业谈判的预期

　　MACRO： WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THE US-CHINA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS THIS

　　WEEKEND

　　宏不雅：咱们对本周末好意思中营业谈判的预期

　　Ahead of this weekend’s trade negotiations in Geneva we update our work from 24 April when we addressed the question of whether an interm deal between China and the USA， one which could see a lowering of tariffs， was possible． Since our earlier piece， we have continued to refine our methodology and have been making more progress on understanding this problem． We have learnt from the UK trade deal， for example， that even a “trade deal” involves the payment of a 10% tariff and more exports for the US with limited imports． We look at whether it is optimal for both sides tocut tariffs and what that optimal level could be．

　　在本周末日内瓦营业谈判前夜，咱们更新了4⽉24日的讨论内容，其时咱们探讨了中好意思之间达成一项可能镌汰关税的临时左券是否可行。自咱们之前的著作发表以来，咱们束缚完善讨论模式，介怀会这个问题上取得了更多阐述。举例，从英好意思营业协定中咱们了解到，即使是一项“营业协定”  也波及10%  的关税支付，且好意思国出口加多，入口有限。咱们讨论了两边削减关税是否是最优采纳，以及最优的关税水平可能是些许。

　　From our Game Theory perspective， we assume that in the current environment US exports to China fall 30% while Chinese exports to the US fall 60%． This costs China $42bn while the US gains $169bn． In the event of a trade deal， we assume that US exports to China falls 10% and Chinese exports to the US fall 20%． For the trade deal to be done， we still expect the US to demand that the trade deficit will be eliminated - currently the US has， including tariffs， got 54.1% of the bilateral trade． The US is also collecting $249.2bn in tariffs， money that the Government is going to be reluctant to give up． In the event of a further breakdown we expect US exports to China to fall 40% and Chinese exports to the USA to fall by 80%． We also assume all carveouts are eliminated in a further breakdown of relations and full tariffs are again applied to all exports．

　　从博弈论的角度来看，咱们假定在面前环境下，好意思国对中国的出口下跌30%，而中国对好意思国的出口下跌60%。这使中国亏损420亿好意思元，而好意思国赢利1690亿好意思元。要是达成营业左券，咱们假定好意思国对中国的出口下跌10%，中国对好意思国的出口下跌20%。为达成营业左券，咱们预测好意思国仍会要求打消营业逆差——  面前包括关税在内，好意思国在双边营业中占比54．1%。好意思国还征收了2492亿好意思元的关税，政府不太空闲毁掉这笔收入。要是谈判进一步闹翻，咱们预测好意思国对中国的出口将下跌40%，中国对好意思国的出口将下跌80%。咱们还假定，在关系进一步闹翻的情况下，所有豁免将被取消，所有出口将再次被征收全额关税。

　　In this scenario it is not optimal to reach a trade deal which would involve the removal of all tariffs except 10% bilateral tariffs and which would involve the elimination of the US trade deficit

　　在这种情况下，达成一项取打消10%  双边疆税之外的所相干税比肩除好意思国营业逆差的营业左券并非最优采纳。

　　But what about if we examine the scenario where instead of a full deal， a partial deal， is achieved  which would involve a reduction of tariffs to 65%， as has been proposed． Is this optimal？ China would benefit from a partial deal even if it meant that their exports fell by 40% and US exports fell 20%． However the US would reject this partial deal and so under these parameters a partial deal would be rejected

　　但要是咱们探究这么一种情况，即不是达周详面左券，而是如提议的那样达成一项将关税降⾄65%  的部分左券，情况会怎样呢？这是最优采纳吗？即使这意味着中国出口下跌40%，好意思国出口下跌20%，中国仍能从部分左券中受益。然则，好意思国会拒却这项部分左券，因此在这些要求下，部分左券将被否决。

　　WhatwouldgettheUStoagreetoatradedeal？TheUSmustgetatleastthe$169bnthatitis benefiting from currently either frommore tariffs or more trade - there is a trade off．

　　怎样才调让好意思国本心一项营业左券呢？好意思国必须至少得到面前从更多关税或更多营业中得到的1690亿好意思元收益——  这需要量度弃取。

　　We find that this may be possible if on a partial deal Chinese exports fall less than 40% and US exports fall less than 20%． Then a partial deal on a 70% tariff is preferable than the current state form both sides and a deal could be done． Are these falls in demand realistic？

　　咱们发现，要是在部分左券下，中国出口降幅小于40%，好意思国出口降幅小于20%，这简略是可行的。那么，关于两边而言，70%  关税的部分左券比近况更可取，左券也有可能达成。这些需求降幅推行吗？

　　WeestimateChineseexports willfall 25% witha tariff of 70% and USexports willfall by12.5%． With those parameters a partial deal is preferable to the current state even at a tariffof60%． Iftrade fallsby more than that then a partial trade deal isnotpossible．

　　咱们预测，在70%  的关税下，中国出口将下跌25%，好意思国出口将下跌12.5%。在这些要求下，即使关税为60%，部分左券也比近况更可取。要是营业降幅最初这个幅度，部分营业左券就无法达成。

　　Againitseemsthat，ratherthanjustpullingoutrandomfigures，theTrumpadministrationhas reached its conclusions after careful calculations． The 65%tariffproposal is not an accident．

　　似乎特朗普政府并非简略给出数据，而是过程仔细诡计后得出论断。65%  的关税提议并非无意。

　　So why did we conclude on 24Apr that a trade deal was not possible？ On that occasion we assumed  a 30% drop in bilateral trade on both sides． With those numbers the pain was not significant enough． We now assume that the percentage decline in Chinese exports is twice that ofthe US． We also take  intoaccountthecarve-outsthatbothsideshavegrantedwhichmeanthat$100bnofChinese  exportsofconsumergoodsareonlytariffedat20% and$40bnofUSexportsaretariff-free．The  parametersof thegamehavechangedsince24 Apreventhoughitappearsthattherulesremain  similar．

　　那么，为什么咱们在4⽉24日得出营业左券无法达成的论断呢？其时咱们假定两边双边营业齐下跌30%。按那些数据，影响还不够大。咱们面前假定中国出口降幅是好意思国的两倍。咱们还探究了两边予以的豁免情况，即1000亿好意思元的中国浪掷品出口仅征收20%  的关税，400亿好意思元的好意思国出口免税。自4⽉24日以来，博弈的参数也曾发生了变化，尽管规律看似相通。

　　For the US there is a trade - off between level of tariff collected and amount of trade to be done and hence a minimization of the economic impact． President Trump will want to collect enough tariffs to eliminate federal income taxes for the bottom 75% of the population which would cost $236bn． To eliminate federal income taxes for the bottom 50% of taxpayers would cost just $51.2bn which can be paid with 60% tariffs．

　　对好意思国来说，在征收的关税水见谅营业量之间存在量度，意见是将经济影响降至最低。特朗普总统但愿征收满盈的关税，以便为75%  的低收入东说念主群撤职联邦所得税，这将破耗2360亿好意思元。为50%  的低收入征税东说念主撤职联邦所得税只需破耗512亿好意思元，这不错通过60% 的关税来竣事。

　　These objectives do not appear to be achievable in line with the idea of eliminating the trade deficit.That still requires， with our estimates of the tariff impact on exports， tariffs of 120%． With a 60% tariff the US will still be running a trade deficit of $57.8bn with China， inclusive of tariffs． Not quite zero but much better than the $290bn trade deficit that the US is currently running．

　　这些指标似乎无法按照打消营业逆差的念念路竣事。笔据咱们对关税对出口影响的臆测，要竣事这少许仍需120%  的关税。征收60%  的关税时，好意思国对中国仍会有578 亿好意思元的营业逆差（含关税）。虽非零逆差，但媲好意思国面前2900亿好意思元的营业逆差要好得多。

　　While it is unclear exactly what the trade impact is， both sides are likely to wait until it becomes a lot clearer how much trade actually falls and who will lose more - this key figure is hard to ascertain at the moment and that probably precludes a trade deal． For now both sides will play a dance to assess what the other side is thinking．

　　由于面前尚不明晰营业的真确影响，两边可能会恭候，直到营业本色降幅以及谁的亏损更大变得愈加开朗——  面前这一要津数据难以笃定，这很可能阻止营业左券的达成。面前两边会相互试探，以估量对方的想法。

　　With President Trump on a visit to the Middle East and the top authority in Russia， it seems that neither leadership are holding out much hope for an agreement this weekend． The best we can hope for is that there are talks to hold more talks - it is unlikely that any resolution will be found before the end of the 90 - day period on 31 July and as markets start to realize that they head back to the levels they were at on 9 Apr to put pressure on the leaderships not to increase tariffs or escalate the trade war

　　特朗普总统出访中东和俄罗斯高层，似乎两边带领东说念主齐对本周末达成左券不抱太大但愿。咱们所能生机的最好效果是开启更多谈判的对话——在7 ⽉31⽇90天期限搁置前不太可能找到措置有经营，跟着商场迟缓贯通到这少许，其将回到4⽉9日的水平，以此向带领东说念主施压，幸免晋升关税或使营业战升级。

　　MACRO： IS A REDUCTION IN BILATERAL US - CHINA TARIFFS TO 65% POSSIBLE？

　　宏不雅：好意思中双边疆税降至65%  是否可行？

　　MarketsralliedearlierthisweekwhenPresidentTrumpsuggestedthathewasopentocuttingthe tariffon Chinese exports． The Wall Street Journal suggested that the tariffcouldbe cut to 65%．

　　本周早些技巧，特朗普总统示意空闲削减对中国出口商品的关税，商场立时上扬。《华尔街日报》称关税可能降至65%。

　　Using the Game Theory approach that we have presented over the past few days we can see whether it is optimal to cut tariffs to 65% and how the game looks． This framework is useful in nassessing whether any of the different outcomes mooted make any sense．

　　诈欺咱们往常几天提倡的博弈论模式，咱们不错分析将关税降至65%  是否为最优采纳，以及这种情况下的博弈态势。这一框架有助于评估多样提议的不同效果是否合理。

　　Witha65% tariff on bothsidesand bilateral tradefalling30% inthecurrentregime，itisstillnotoptimal for China or the USA to reach a deal． Moving to a position with 65% tariffs would be sub - optimalfor bothsides．The US would give up$293bn in returnof $108bn whileChina wouldgive upalossof$7bnforalossof$65bn．

　　在面前体制下，若两边齐征收65%  的关税且双边营业下跌30%，对中国和好意思国来说，达成左券仍非最优采纳。参加65%  关税的时事，对两边而言齐并非最好。好意思国将毁掉2930亿好意思元以换取1080亿好意思元，而中国将从亏损70亿好意思元变为亏损650亿好意思元。

　　However these numbersand the optimaloutcomeschangedramatically basedon theexpectedfall in bilateral trade．So long as bilateral trade has not reached a floor it remains optimalfor bothsidesto not reach a deal， even this intermediate 65%tariffdeal．

　　然则，这些数字和最优效果会跟着双边营业预期降幅的变化而大幅变动。只须双边营业尚未触底，对两边来说，不达成左券（即使是65%  关税的中间左券）仍是最优采纳。

　　What we find is that ifbilateral trade falls by 80% in the current145% tariffregime then it becomesoptimal for both sides to do a deal and move to a 65%tariffregime．

　　咱们发现，在面前145%  的关税体制下，要是双边营业下跌80%，那么对两边来说，达成左券并转向65%  的关税体制将是最优采纳。

　　Both sides will either need to see bilateral trade falling that amount or see the potential risk of trade falling by that amount to come to the negotiating table． When this occurs there are a number of consequences：

　　两边要么看到双边营业下跌上述幅度，要么贯通到营业有下跌该幅度的潜在风险，才会坐到谈判桌前。一朝出现这种情况，会产生一系列效果：

　　Firstlyitbecomesoptimalforbothsidestomovefromthe  145%tariff regimeto  a65%tariff regime．

　　发轫，对两边来说，从145%  的关税体制转向65%  的关税体制将是最优采纳。

　　Secondly even though appear to be two Nash equilibria （Deal， Deal） and （No Deal， No Deal） the （Deal， Deal） equilibria is dominant both individually and collectively （37 > 13 and -169 > -309 while -132 > -296）．

　　其次，尽管似乎存在两个纳什平衡（达成左券，达成左券）和（未达成左券，未达成左券），但（达成左券，达成左券）平衡在个体和总体层面齐占优（37>13，-169> -309，-132> -296  ）。

　　Moving to the 65% tariff regime it then becomes optimal to reach a full deal which would involve the rebalance of the trade deficit．

　　转向65%  的关税体制后，达成一项波及营业逆差再平衡的全面左券将是最优采纳。

　　This appears to be a balloon that the US administration is floating but until the impact of the trade war on exports becomes apparent or Chinese exports actually fall by 80%， it is unlikely that any progress will be made． We expect Chinese exports to start showing the impact of the trade war within a few months．

　　这似乎是好意思国政府放出的试探气球，但在营业战对出口的影响泄露出来，或者中国出话柄际下跌80%  之前，不太可能取得任何阐述。咱们预测，中国出口将在几个月内启动泄露营业战的影响。

　　One of the flaws in this work is that it assumes that both US and Chinese exports suffers the same loss - this is almost certainly not the case． The initial numbers show that Chinese exports are falling by twice the percentage amount that US numbers are． We need to adjust the numbers to take this into account in future pieces

　　这项讨论的一个颓势是，它假定好意思中出口碰到的亏损疏导——  真的不错投诚并非如斯。初步数据炫夸，中国出口下跌幅度是好意思国的两倍。在后续讨论中，咱们需要治疗数据以探究这少许。

　　We continue to find that the Trump tariff numbers are not accidents but there appears to be some intuitive methodology in reaching them． We use a model from Wharton University which projects the impact on Chinese exports of US tariffs and the revenue it will raise

　　咱们束缚发现，特朗普的关税数据并非简略设定，笃定这些数据似乎有一定的内在逻辑模式。咱们给与了沃顿商学院的一个模子，该模子预测好意思国关税对中国出口的影响偏激带来的收入。

　　The Wharton model projects a 61.1% drop in Chinese exports in 2025 when tariffs of 145% are applied． At 145% tariffs we find that the tariffs that China will be paying are equivalent to the value of its exports to the USA．

　　沃顿模子预测，若征收145%  的关税，2025 年中国出口将下跌61．1%。在145%  的关税水平下，咱们发现中国支付的关税金额异常于其对好意思出口的价值。

　　After exchanging the bilateral tariffs we find that this is the optimal tariff level at which the trade deficit is effectively eliminated． Reducing the tariffs to 65% would leave the USA with a trade deficit of $65.1bn and would not allow the USA to achieve its objective of eliminating the trade deficit． Again we find that the USA is quite comfortable with the current regime， as is China， so despite the damage to bilateral exports there does not seem to be any rationale for changing it．

　　在互换双边疆税后，咱们发现这是能有用打消营业逆差的最优关税水平。将关税降至65%会使好意思国仍有651亿好意思元的营业逆差，无法竣事打消营业逆差的指标。咱们再次发现，好意思国和中国齐对面前体制异常合适，是以尽管双边出口受到毁伤，但似乎莫得原理更变它。

　　Despite the recent moves in the past few days， a trade dealoranytradedeal，especially withChinais quite a long way away．

　　尽管往常几天有一些动向，但达成营业左券，或者说任何营业左券，尤其是与中国的营业左券，仍山陬海澨。

　　Within our Catastrophe Framework both sides have seen an increase in the threat faced from the other prompting both sides to move to the “Attack” plane．

　　在咱们的突变表面框架内，两边齐察觉到来自对方的欺压加多，这促使两边齐采纳“挫折”政策。

　　Both sides think that they can win the war at relatively low cost to themselves． It will be up to markets to remind the leaders of the cost of the trade war． When this happens then the leaders will move to a more neutral stance and back down． It is interesting to view President Trump’s actions on

　　the initial setting of tariffs from 2 Apr to 11 Apr within this context as well as the market responsesn to his attacks on Fed Chair Powell． In both cases President Trump backed down when faced with a significant market cost

　　两边齐觉得我方能以相对较低的资本赢得这场营业战。独一商场才调让带领东说念主贯通到营业战的代价。当这种情况发生时，带领东说念主会采纳更中立的态度并作念出衰落。从这个角度来看，特朗普总统在4⽉2⽇⾄11日最初设定关税时的活动，以及商场对他抨击好意思联储主席鲍威尔的反映，齐很成心念念。在这两种情况下，特朗普总统在面对庞大的商场资本时齐作念出了衰落。

　　We expect markets to get more nervous as we approach the end of the 90 - day grace period on 8 July， just three days before the expiry of the NKY July options and two days before the expiry of the Kospi July options． We are still within the 40 - day window when the CGTSPOLL signal  indicates the market lower - this window will end on 6 June unless a fresh signal is triggered

　　跟着7⽉8⽇90 天脱期期左近搁置，咱们预测商场会愈加弥留，这一天距离日经指数7⽉期权到期仅3 天，距离韩国综搭伙价指数7月期权到期仅2 天。面前咱们仍处于CGTSPOLL信号炫夸商场走低的40 天窗口期内，除非触发新信号，不然该窗口期将于6⽉6日搁置。

　　The rally back up to “fair value” in our fiscal deficit framework on misguided hopes of a traden  deal and the fall in volatility and skew is an opportunity to reset hedges looking for a re - test and break of the lows over the summer．

　　因对营业左券抱有不切本色的生机，在咱们的财政赤字框架内，商场回升至“公允价值”，波动性和偏度下跌，这是一个从头治疗对冲政策的契机，以便在夏令从头测试并阻拦低点。

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